For as long as Anthony Pagano can remember, he’s kept a close eye on his Staten Island flower shop. But when a migrant shelter opened nearby, his vigilance turned to worry. “How do you put migrants across from an elementary school? You don’t know who they are. Criminals,” he told NPR earlier this year.

Pagano’s fears echo a belief that has shaped American politics for centuries: the idea that immigrants bring crime. From the days of Ellis Island to today’s debates over border security, the image of the immigrant as a threat has been a potent and enduring narrative. But what if this widespread perception isn’t just exaggerated — but entirely wrong?

New research spanning 150 years of U.S. history provides a startling answer: immigrants are consistently less likely to commit crimes than their US-born peers.

The Long View on Crime and Immigration: 150 Years of Data

Researchers led by Stanford economist Ran Abramitzky analyzed incarceration rates of immigrant and US-born men aged 18 to 40 — the demographic most likely to be imprisoned. Their dataset, which spans 1870 to 2019, is the most comprehensive examination of its kind. It pulls from decennial censuses, large census samples, and the American Community Survey.

The findings are clear. From 1870 to 1960, incarceration rates among immigrants and US-born citizens were similar. But starting in the 1960s, a dramatic divergence emerged. By 2019, US-born men were incarcerated at rates nearly double those of immigrants — approximately 3,000 per 100,000 compared to fewer than 1,500 per 100,000 for immigrants.

Whether from Europe, Mexico, China, or Central America, immigrants consistently exhibit lower incarceration rates than US-born men. This trend holds even when comparing immigrants to US-born white men, among whom incarceration rates have historically been lower than other demographic groups.

“The data show exactly the opposite [of popular assumptions]: throughout American history, immigrants have consistently had similar or lower incarceration rates than US-born citizens,” the researchers wrote.

A Persistent Myth

The narrative linking immigration to crime is nothing new. In Thursday’s State of the Union address, the murder of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old student, was spotlighted as an emblem of the perceived dangers of immigration. Alabama Senator Katie Britt pointed to the suspect’s undocumented status as evidence of systemic failure, saying, “This could have been my daughter. This could have been yours.”

This rhetoric taps into deep-seated fears, amplified during the 1980s and 1990s and perpetuated in modern political campaigns. President-Elect Donald Trump recently claimed that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” while former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suggested shooting migrants suspected of drug smuggling.

However, the new research dismantles these claims. Studies from institutions like Stanford University and the CATO Institute show that immigrants — both documented and undocumented — commit fewer crimes than US-born citizens. For instance, a 2019 analysis of Texas data found that undocumented immigrants were 37.1% less likely to be convicted of a crime than US-born individuals.

Even nationwide, both documented immigrants and undocumented migrants, exhibit lower incarceration rates compared to US-born men. Moreover, the researchers found that the decline in incarceration rates isn’t confined to recent arrivals. Even long-term residents among immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated, whether or not they hold citizenship.

Some argue that deportations artificially lower immigrant crime statistics. However, the researchers found that the gap persists even among immigrant US citizens who cannot be deported. In fact, the trend predates the surge in deportations seen in the 2000s.

Another myth suggests immigrants may receive preferential treatment in the justice system, masking their true criminality. Yet, prior studies show the opposite — noncitizens often face harsher penalties than US citizens for comparable crimes.

So, why is this the trend?

Why are immigrants less prone to crime and incarceration than natives? According to the researchers, immigrants, particularly those with lower education levels, often occupy jobs in manual labor and service sectors. These roles, while not glamorous, have been relatively insulated from the economic upheavals — like globalization and automation — which may help turn them away from crime.

For example, low-educated immigrants are now 30 percent more likely to be employed than US-born men with the same education level. Similarly, immigrants are more likely to be married and living with children — an indicator often associated with lower criminal behavior.

There’s also the unique nature of migration itself. Immigrants are often a self-selected group, more willing to take risks and adapt to new environments. These traits, researchers suggest, may make them more resilient and less prone to criminal behavior. The resilience and determination that drive someone to travel overseas for a better life also seem to steer them away from the pathways that lead to incarceration.

As political leaders grapple with migration policy, the data offers a sobering reminder: the fears stoked by rhetoric are often at odds with the evidence.

The findings appeared in the American Economic Review.