homehome Home chatchat Notifications


Facebook connections can predict how COVID-19 spreads

The coronavirus mainly spreads through direct person-to-person contact and it does a very good job at it, too, being roughly twice as contagious as the flu. So, this is a virus that is highly adapted to human nature, exploiting our propensity to engage in social activities. Due to the way it is designed by its […]

Tibi Puiu
April 15, 2020 @ 10:28 pm

share Share

The strength and density of Facebook connections between two geographical regions can predict COVID-19 outbreaks.
Credit: Pixabay.

The coronavirus mainly spreads through direct person-to-person contact and it does a very good job at it, too, being roughly twice as contagious as the flu. So, this is a virus that is highly adapted to human nature, exploiting our propensity to engage in social activities.

Due to the way it is designed by its architects, Facebook does a very good job mirroring our real-life connections with people. Now, scientists have tapped into Facebook’s datasets to develop a model that can accurately predict the spread of COVID-19.

How your Facebook friends can predict which regions will be the most affected by COVID-19

Researchers at New York University used a new anonymized dataset from Facebook called the Social Connectedness Index. In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, the biggest social network in the world has tried to clear its name by releasing all sorts of initiatives and programs in an effort to both tighten user privacy while also being more transparent on how it processes user data.

This dataset allowed the researchers to measure how connected two geographical regions are based on the friendships on Facebook. The dataset doesn’t offer raw data that could be used for more granular mining so as to not infringe on user privacy. However, this is enough to plot the density of social connections.

Using such an approach, the researchers assessed COVID-19 transmission in the early days of the epidemic in two important hotspots: Westchester County (a New York suburb) and Lodi province in the north of Italy.

In the New York suburb, the researchers found that coastal regions and urban centers had high levels of COVID-19 cases per capita, as well as high levels of connectedness to Westchester-based Facebook users. For Lodi, Facebook connections mirrored the spread of coronavirus to Rimini, a popular seaside resort on the Adriatic.

There were also associations that connected Facebook data to COVID-19 cases spreading between Lodi and several provinces in southern Italy, which are historically known for workers and students migrating to the richer Lombardy region in northern Italy.

These findings held true when wealth, population density, and geographical proximity were factored in.

“These results suggest that data from online social networks may prove useful to epidemiologists and others hoping to forecast the spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19,” the authors wrote in their study.

At this moment, half of the world’s population is under lockdown. But this can’t last forever. At some point, social distancing restrictions will be loosened — and this will happen intermittently up to at least 2022, according to a recent study that ZME Science covered today.

This sort of epidemiological modeling based on social network connections might prove incredibly useful during the crucial moments in between lockdowns. For instance, the modeling could inform policymakers on which regions are the most vulnerable to COVID-19 transmission allowing them to take precautionary steps.

Elsewhere, governments are turning to other types of user data, such as aggregated data derived from telecommunication towers or browsing history from the mobile advertising industry.

share Share

A Woman Asked ChatGPT for a Palm Reading and It Flagged a Mole That Might Be Cancer

A viral TikTok recounts the story of a young woman who turned to ChatGPT for love advice but received an unsolicited medical advice instead.

This School Was Built from Sugarcane Waste. It Might Change Construction Forever

Bricks made from sugarcane waste have constructed a school in India — and are building new vision for construction.

Japan Plans to Beam Solar Power from Space to Earth

The Sun never sets in space — and Japan has found a way to harness this unlimited energy.

Everyone else’s opinion is secretly changing yours (and that's huge for disinformation)

Public opinion may be swaying you a lot more than you think.

Magic Mushroom Use Is Soaring in the U.S. With More Americans Turning to Psilocybin Than Cocaine or Meth

Use is up across all age groups, with rising poison calls and shifting perceptions

Plastics that melt in the ocean offer new hope for cleaner seas

One day we can say goodbye to microplastics.

A Forgotten Civilization in Peru Buried Its War Dead Like Heroes and Now We’re Finally Learning Who They Were

Battle-wounded skeletons and ancient textiles offer new clues about the lesser-known Chuquibamba.

Giant Planet Was Just Caught Falling Into Its Star and It Changes What We Thought About Planetary Death

A rare cosmic crime reveals a planet’s slow-motion death spiral into its star.

These Male Octopuses Paralyze Mates During Sex to Avoid Being Eaten Alive

Male blue-lined octopuses paralyze their mates to survive the perils of reproduction.

These 400,000-Year-Old Mammoth Tusks Carved by Early Humans May Be the Oldest Evidence of Prehistoric Intelligence

Ancient tusk fragments hint at early social learning 400,000 years ago