homehome Home chatchat Notifications


It's the end of big oil as we know it, report concludes

The golden age of black oil is ending says a new report

Mihai Andrei
June 16, 2016 @ 8:37 pm

share Share

The golden age of black oil is ending says a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

At this point, the oil industry almost looks like a raid boss – a huge black dragon, attacked from all sides by smaller opponents. It’s still the biggest thing around, no one can really go against it directly, but they’re just slowly advancing into its territory more and more, taking more of its share. The opponents in this metaphor are renewables. The Bloomberg report predicts that wind and solar will be cheaper than coal and gas generators in about ten years (2027), and electric vehicles could take a quarter of the car market by 2040.

The peak for oil and coal seems to be 2025 – and it’s all downhill from there.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

“You can’t fight the future,” says lead researcher, Seb Henbest. “The economics are increasingly locked in.”

Henbest projected that US$11.4 trillion will be invested in new energy sources over the next 25 years, with two thirds going in to wind and solar. Humanity’s electricity demand is still rising and investments in fossil fuels will add up to $2.1 trillion through 2040. But that will be dwarfed by $7.8 trillion invested in renewables, including $3.4 trillion for solar, $3.1 trillion for wind, and $911 billion for hydro power, they write.

“Some US$7.8 trillion will be invested globally in renewables between 2016 and 2040, two-thirds of the investment in all power generating capacity, but it would require trillions more to bring world emissions onto a track compatible with the United Nations 2 degrees Celsius climate target,” says Henbest.

Coal and gas will also get cheaper, but that won’t derail the renewable advance. It’s just that prices for wind and solar are dropping much faster than those for coal. Home batteries will also become more efficient, fueling the expansion even further and ushering in a golden age for electric cars.

They also make another interesting point: India, not China, will drive most of the world’s increase in emissions in the future. China has imposed itself as the biggest polluter, but their evolving economic is expected to make a quick shift towards renewables and away from the coal energy which powered its growth. That leaves India as the biggest emerging threat when it comes to emissions. India’s electricity demand is expected to quadruple by 2040, and the country will need all the electricity it can get to power this growth. Sure, India is investing heavily into solar energy at the moment, but that’s just a part of it.

Fossil fuels won’t go away anytime soon, but they’re cornered, and it seems like their days are numbered.

You can access the report online here.

share Share

A Brain Implant Just Turned a Woman’s Thoughts Into Speech in Near Real Time

This tech restores speech in real time for people who can’t talk, using only brain signals.

Using screens in bed increases insomnia risk by 59% — but social media isn’t the worst offender

Forget blue light, the real reason screens disrupt sleep may be simpler than experts thought.

We Should Start Worrying About Space Piracy. Here's Why This Could be A Big Deal

“We are arguing that it’s already started," say experts.

An Experimental Drug Just Slashed Genetic Heart Risk by 94%

One in 10 people carry this genetic heart risk. There's never been a treatment — until now.

We’re Getting Very Close to a Birth Control Pill for Men

Scientists may have just cracked the code for male birth control.

A New Antibiotic Was Hiding in Backyard Dirt and It Might Save Millions

A new antibiotic works when others fail.

Researchers Wake Up Algae That Went Dormant Before the First Pyramids

Scientists have revived 7,000-year-old algae from Baltic Sea sediments, pushing the limits of resurrection ecology.

A Fossil So Strange Scientists Think It’s From a Completely New Form of Life

This towering mystery fossil baffled scientists for 180 Years and it just got weirder.

ChatGPT Seems To Be Shifting to the Right. What Does That Even Mean?

ChatGPT doesn't have any political agenda but some unknown factor is causing a subtle shift in its responses.

This Freshwater Fish Can Live Over 120 Years and Shows No Signs of Aging. But It Has a Problem

An ancient freshwater species may be quietly facing a silent collapse.