The world is in the midst of a major transportation shift. In 2017, sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars peaked. Since then, fewer new gas-powered cars have been hitting the road. By the middle of this decade, more will be scrapped than sold. The global fleet of fossil-fueled vehicles is in decline, while electric vehicles (EVs) are surging ahead.
Yet, looking through the news, you may be tricked into thinking otherwise.
Aren’t EVs in trouble?
If you scan the headlines, you might think the electric vehicle revolution is in trouble. You’ll find news about the “EV slump” and “sales cooling”. But if you look at the numbers, a different story emerges. Not only are EV sales growing consistently, but they’re biting off more and more from the combustion car market.
According to the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and the University of Exeter’s EEIST project, EVs are on track to dominate global car sales by 2030. Market share projections vary but the trajectory is clear. China, already the world’s largest EV market, is expected to hit 90% EV sales by 2030. Northern Europe is already well past the halfway mark. The U.S. and India are catching up.
“The complete phase-out of fossil-fuelled vehicles is in reach,” said Kelly Levin, Chief of Science, Data and Systems Change at the Bezos Earth Fund, to Exeter University.
The case for EVs isn’t driven just by environmental motivations. In fact, there’s a strong economic case to buy an electric car now.
While past EV adoption was driven by government incentives, costs are falling fast. In 2023, EV batteries cost around $151 per kilowatt-hour. By 2030, that figure is expected to drop to as low as $60 per kWh. This means that by the end of the decade, an EV will cost as much as a gasoline car at the dealership—and significantly less over its lifetime due to lower fuel and maintenance costs. In fact, even now, electric cars might be cheaper over their lifetime than internal combustion cars (depending on where you live).
However, policy still plays a role. Professor Mei Mei Aileen Lam, from the EEIST project, explained that coordinated policy action could push price parity forward by years. “It would bring forward the tipping point in India a whole three years from 2027 to 2024,” she said. That kind of acceleration has ripple effects worldwide.
What the Headlines Get Wrong
Despite these clear trends, some media outlets have painted a misleading picture of the EV market. The issue is mostly with growth percentages and how these are represented.
Early adopters drove exponential EV growth, with some years seeing sales double. But as the market matures, the percentage increase of the growth rate naturally slows—even as the total number of EVs sold continues to rise. This is basic math: a smaller market can easily grow by 50%, but once millions of EVs are being sold annually, it’s harder to maintain that rate. Yet, some have wrongly interpreted this natural slowdown as a collapse.
Jameson Dow, writing for Electrek, called out this flawed narrative: “To take an extreme example, it would be odd to say that sales are slumping in Norway, which just set a record at 96.4% BEV market share in September.” Yet, because Norway’s EV sales only increased by 10% compared to the previous year’s 87% share, some headlines framed it as a slowdown.
While the EV market is no longer accelerating its pace, its growth follows a so-called S-curve, a pattern seen in many technological shifts. Initially, adoption is slow as early adopters test the waters. Then, as infrastructure, affordability, and public trust improve, growth accelerates exponentially. This is the steep middle phase of the curve, where EVs are now.
Eventually, as EVs become the dominant vehicle type, growth will taper off as the market reaches saturation. Countries like Norway, where EV adoption is nearing 100%, are at the upper end of this curve. The rest of the world is still climbing, but the trajectory is clear: the transition is well underway, and there is no turning back.
The Stakes Are High
The transition to electric transport isn’t just about passenger cars. The same forces driving EV adoption—falling costs, better performance, and increasing infrastructure—are also reshaping trucking, two-wheelers, and public transit; and the stakes have never been higher. Transportation is the second-largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for around one-fifth of global CO₂ emissions.
A successful EV transition doesn’t just help cut emissions—it reshapes economies and geopolitical risks. It improves public health by reducing air pollution. And it creates a future where personal transportation no longer relies on a dwindling, polluting resource.
Now, as electric cars (and sustainability, in general) are under attack by some politicians, it remains to be seen whether the market is mature and robust enough to pass the test.
For now, the data is clear. While the road ahead may have bumps, the direction is set. The future of cars is electric.
