The world is getting hotter and it shouldn’t really surprise anyone by now. However, it’s striking to see just how much hotter. We’ve all gotten too used to “this month was the hottest on record” and we barely even pay attention to them anymore, but here’s a record we should pay attention to. The past 12 months have all been the hottest on record for their respective month — by a large margin.

May 2024 was the hottest May in history; before it, April 2024 was the hottest April in history. Same for March, February… we’re not going to go through all the months. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), part of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme of the European Union, as well as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK´s Meteorological Office have all confirmed that we’re in uncharted climate territory. We’re straying further and further into climate heating.

Carlo Buontempo, C3S Director, comments:

“It is shocking but not surprising that we have reached this 12-month streak. While this sequence of record-breaking months will eventually be interrupted, the overall signature of climate change remains and there is no sign in sight of a change in such a trend.” He also adds, “We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions. This string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold but if we manage to stabilise the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere in the very near future we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century.”

Targets shmargets

Remember when the world’s leaders met up in Paris and signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to keep the world’s heating to under 2°C — and maybe, just maybe, try to keep it at 1.5°C? Well, the global average for May 2024 was 1.52°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. It’s the 11th consecutive month at or above 1.5°C. Even if we magically turned off all our greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow, the inertia would likely still push it over the 1.5°C objective.

Sure, there’s an argument to be made that 2024 was unusually hot. Indeed, it was. El Nino, the climate phenomenon characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean, made its presence felt. But the hottest 10 years in history have been the past 10 years. All forecasts suggest that within 5 years, tops, we’ll have another “hottest year” and continue the negative records.

The last train

Even the United Nations, a key contributor to the Paris Agreement and global climate efforts through its Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), seems to be losing faith. UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, commented on the new report:

“For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening. We’re shattering global temperature records and reaping the whirlwind. It’s climate crunch time. Now is the time to mobilise, act and deliver.”

It is, indeed, pretty much the last train to avoid a climate catastrophe — the research shows it pretty clearly, and with each passing month, we get more data to support it. Every delay edges us closer to irreversible changes, but proactive measures can still make a significant difference.

The future climate is not set in stone, but, with each passing month, the window of opportunity closes more and more. We have the data to clearly highlight the problem. Whether or not we’ll choose to do something about it remains to be seen.