Coffee is a morning ritual for millions, with global consumption exceeding 2.2 billion cups daily. Yet, the future of coffee, particularly the favored Arabica variety, is under threat from climate change.

A recent study from the University of Florida led by Felipe Ferrao explores what the over 100 million farmers producing coffee worldwide could do to save their businesses and keep supplying us with this beloved brew. One option is to breed more resilient Arabica strains that can better handle droughts and higher ambient temperatures.

However, in all likelihood, Arabica will lose its current dominant position in favor of Robusta (also known as Conilon), which is more adaptable. In just a few decades, most of the coffee brewed across the world may be Robusta.

Keeping the coffee train running

“If you consider that nowadays, about 60% of coffee beans commercialized around the globe are from Coffea arabica, the coffee industry is looking for alternatives,” said Ferrao. “This is how and where Robusta coffee emerges as a good candidate.”

“Overall, the species produces more coffee than Arabica, using fewer inputs, such as fertilizer and water. As its name suggests, the plant is more robust,” Ferrao said. “While the demand for Robusta coffee likely won’t decrease, our biggest challenge is to meet the demand for quality and productivity required by the coffee chain. In this sense, genetics and breeding studies can provide basic elements for a better understanding of diversity and factors that affect quality.”

Arabica beans are renowned for their nuanced flavors and aromatic qualities. Coffee drinkers savor its smoother, sweeter taste, often with hints of fruits, flowers, and nuts. Arabica plants thrive in cooler, higher altitudes, typically between 2,000 and 6,000 feet above sea level. However, this preference for specific climates makes Arabica more vulnerable to environmental changes, diseases, and pests. The delicate nature of Arabica demands extra care, leading to higher production costs.

Robusta, in contrast, is valued for its hardiness. As the name implies, Robusta is robust, growing in a broader range of environmental conditions. Notably, it can tolerate lower altitudes and hotter climates. It is also more resistant to diseases and pests while requiring less input to grow. So, this resilience translates to a higher yield and lower production costs. Robusta beans produce a stronger, more bitter taste, often described as earthy or woody, with a higher caffeine content than Arabica.

Arabica, with its superior flavor profile, is often reserved for premium blends and specialty coffees. Robusta’s resilience and cost-effectiveness make it a staple in instant coffee and espresso blends, where its stronger flavor and crema-enhancing properties are appreciated.

Diversity and Sustainability

Arabica coffee currently dominates the market, accounting for about 60% of global coffee sales. However, studies predict that by 2050, climate change will reduce Arabica production by approximately 80%. At the same time, demand is expected to triple by 2050.

In the last few decades, Robusta coffee production has been increasingly closing the gap, surging by about 30%.

The new research evaluated both Robusta and Arabica across multiple traits in high-altitude regions in Brazil over five years. The study found that Robusta not only adapts well to high altitudes but also delivers good yield and flavor.

“Robusta is flexible because it has a large diversity and therefore different plants can be selected, depending on the weather conditions,” Ferrao said. “With that said, we can shed some light on the fundamental question about the coffee of the future — climate-smart coffee.”

Researchers suggest that Robusta can meet three critical criteria for future coffee cultivation:

• Sustainability: Producing more coffee with fewer inputs.
• Quality: Achieving flavor profiles that satisfy consumer demand.
• Plasticity: Adapting to new production systems and climates.

Encouraged by their findings in Brazil, University of Florida scientists are now testing Robusta’s potential in their state. They are conducting trials at the Tropical Research and Education Center (TREC) in Homestead and other locations across the state. These trials aim to understand how different soil properties, rainfall distribution, temperature, and weather events in Florida affect coffee production and quality.

The findings appeared in the journal Crop Science.